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Costar State of Retail Webinar Review Part 1 January 28, 2010

Posted by Sean Tufts in Research/Data, Retail News.
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Erik and I listened to an interesting webinar on the state of the national retail market this week and thought we would share the most interesting slides and provide a bit of commentary on how this relates to the Northwest market.

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The first slide shows the stages of the projected retail recovery and the lag time in rental growth and real estate values.   Retail sales in Washington State fell 11.6% in the third quarter of 2009, representing the 3rd largest drop in history.  Fortunately, forecasts call for an increase in 2010 as employment starts to settle and consumers begin spending again.  The Puget Sound market trailed other areas of the country into the recession and may lag a bit coming out.

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The next slide shows what we believe to be the new normal for the next 3-5 years in the as more NW properties are unable to be refinanced and forced into foreclosure.  Although there will be more distressed assets on the market in the future, the opportunity to acquire distressed, REO, and non-performing assets has already begun.

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