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COSTAR: $2.3 Billion in Troubled CMBS Loans Coming Due in Next 6 Months June 30, 2010

Posted by Sean Tufts in Articles, Research/Data.
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COSTAR: $2.3 Billion in Troubled CMBS Loans Coming Due in Next 6 Months

By: Mark Heschmeyer

There are 960 fixed rate loans, representing $9.6 billion, within the portfolio scheduled to mature by the end of the year, according to Fitch Ratings review o. CMBS fixed rate commercial loan. Of these 960 loans, 103 loans representing $2.3 billion (23.3%) are in special servicing. Of those in special servicing, 27 loans (representing 48% by balance) are current.

The maturity breakdown by month through December is as follows:

July: 148 loans, $1.7 billion
August: 134 loans, $1.4 billion
September: 154 loans, $1.1 billion
October: 180 loans, $1.9 billion
November: 161 loans, $1.6 billion
December: 183 loans, $1.9 billion

Of the 148 loans maturing in July, 133, having an average balance of $8.5 million, are current and performing. Retail properties secure 40% of the loans (by dollar balance), followed by 34% office and 12% multifamily. By vintage, 57% of the maturing loans are from 2005 transactions, followed by 26% from 2000 and 8% from 2006 transactions. A majority of the loans have reported year-end 2009 results and have a weighted average debt service coverage ratio of 1.72 times.

While liquidity appears to be slowly returning to the market, the time it takes for borrowers to refinance has continued to be a lengthy process. Loans may remain with the master servicer for 60-90 days while the borrower works to close a new loan. In instances where a borrower is not responsive or has not provided documentation supporting their efforts to refinance; loans are being transferred to special servicing. The lack of liquidity in the market for refinancing mortgages coming due increases the likelihood of a transfer to special servicing for a modification or extension.

Of the 11 loans greater than $20 million scheduled to mature in July, Fitch expects eight loans to default at maturity based on its assumptions. The average loss expectation for these loans is less than 5%, with only four loans being modeled with an expected loss.

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